題名: Fiscal Sustainability in European Countries:A Preliminary Analysis
作者: Cheng-Hong Chang
關鍵字: fiscal deficit
sustainability
unit root
non-linearity
期刊名/會議名稱: 經濟與管理論叢
第8卷第2期
摘要: This paper examines fiscal sustainability in fifteen European countries. Motivated by the statistical power of the advances in panel unit root tests, we apply these new tools to test whether or not the fiscal imbalance is sustainable in the long run. We also employ the exponential smoothing transition unit root test (ESTAR) to account for the non-linearity of the fiscal imbalance. The empirical evidence shows that the traditional unit roots cannot be rejected at the conventional level, suggesting that the fiscal imbalances for these countries are not stationary processes and are thus unsustainable. Evidence from the panel unit roots shows that the fiscal imbalances of Belgium, Finland, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Sweden are stationary processes. The ESTAR unit root test results show that, except for the Netherlands, fourteen out of fifteen countries are non-linear stationary processes. In sum, the evidence shows that the fiscal imbalances of the fifteen European countries meet their intertemporal long-run budget constraints, implying that these countries have no incentive to default on their debt.
ISSN: issn18190917
日期: 2012/0701
分類:第 08卷第2期

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