運用HSPF模式探討降雨特性分佈對流量模擬之影響：以北勢溪為例

Abstract

在現今的社會裡，全球的氣候轉變劇烈讓我們更加難以抓摸氣候變化，相繼出現的超級颱風、超級颶風、大地震、聖嬰現象、反聖嬰現象等災害侵襲之下，全世界都人心惶惶。前一段時間處於缺水、限水的情況，下一段時間卻是水庫爆滿處於洩洪狀態、緊臨河川的下游城市相繼淹水，這都考驗著我們水利人該如何在這樣極端氣候下進行水利設施的施建與設計。 本研究以使用BASINS中的HSPF模式進行率定驗證其HSPF參數，再多次修改參數使其變為較精確後即進行情境分析，以雨量倍數變化型、雨量平均型、雨量集中型此三大類情境進行模擬，進而得到在不同情境模式下降雨量的變化對流量增減變化造成的影響。. 由情境模擬出的流量數值可作出此結論，年降雨量的多寡對流量的變化占了十分重要的角色。由本研究所使用之情境下可得知，改變年降雨量的多寡會直接影響到流量的變化，第一類雨量倍數增減型中流量有明顯的隨之變化；第二類雨量平均型中流量明顯得比原始雨量下的流量少了許多；第三類雨量集中型中可看出雨量應比本研究所設定之情境更加極端集中於更短的時間內，始之形成更大的流量數值。

Abstract In these years, global weather turns into a huge different change, so it's hard to predict the weather accurately. Furthermore, the natural disasters (such as: typhoons, hurricanes, earthquakes, El Nino and anti-El Nino) make people fill with panic all around the world. In previous period, we might be caught in situations of water shortages and water restricts, but in the next period, we may have to face the problems of reservoir in full and the water shortages of the cities which near the rivers. The problems above all are making a test to us who work in the Water Resources Engineering how to establish and design the buildings in the extreme weather. In this study, after taking the HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran) and then Proofreading parameters to be more accurately, I will do the analysis and simulate for three situations to get the inflation of raining and flow.