回歸分析：分析失業率的影響因素

Abstract

近年來新聞媒體常常報導有關失業率的問題，而失業率影響著我們未來的就業問題。因而我們討論出幾個可能會影響失業率的因素，分別為出生人數、外籍勞工人數、消費者物價基本指數、景氣同時指標綜合指數、外銷訂單、歇業家數、平均薪資、工業生產指數及所得稅，利用這九個解釋變數來分析哪些變數會影響失業率。 在報告中，主要探討各解釋變數與反應變數之間的關係。首先我們先建立一組回歸模型，然後將模型做適合度檢定，再判斷各解釋變數和反應變數之間是否有線性關係，確定有線性關係後再進行變數的選取。我們進行三種變數選取法，分別為向前選取法、向後選取法、逐次替換法，執行三種選取法後，將我們得到的變數進行殘差分析，來預測此模型是否符合常態性、均齊性及獨立性，因其中均齊性及獨立性不符合假設，所以我們對模型做轉換，再次檢定殘差，進而找出最佳的模型。 最後找出最佳模型中的變數有出生人數、外籍勞工人數、消費者物價基本指數、景氣同時指標綜合指數、外銷訂單、歇業家數及所得稅，客觀地由這七個變數討論影響失業率的因素。

In recent years, the news media often reports on the unemployment problem, and the unemployment rate affect our future employment. So we discussed a few factors that may affect the unemployment rate, respectively, The number of births, The number of foreign workers, Basic consumer price index, Composite index, Export orders, Went out of business, Average salary, The index of industrial production and Income tax by nine explanatory variables to analyze which variables will affect the unemployment rate.

In the report, focuses on the relationship between the explanatory variables and the response variable between. First, let's establish a set of regression model, then the model is doing fitness test, and then determine whether there is a linear relationship between the explanatory variables and the response variable, there is a linear relationship then conducted to determine the selection of variables. We conducted three variable selection method, namely Forward selection method, Backward selection method, All-possible selection method, after the implementation of the three selection method, we get residuals variables were analyzed to predict whether this model is consistent with normality, homogeneity and independence, because of which are homogeneity and independence does not comply with the assumption, so we do the conversion model, test residuals again, and then find the best model.

Finally, to find the best model variables have The number of births, The number of foreign workers, Basic consumer price index, Composite index, Export orders, Went out of business and Income tax, objective discussion of these seven variables affected unemployment factor.