95無鉛汽油價格對國內汽車銷售影響

Abstract

現代國際原油價格由於各種政治經濟上的原因起伏不定，國內雖有油價方面的固定調整機制，使油價變動不如國際上巨大，但波動的油價多少影響了國內各式產業與油價最直接相關的運輸業也有相當的影響。因此本文使用了時間序列分析、信賴區間分析及相關系數分析等統計方法，以瞭解車子這種與運輸高度相關且具有奢侈品特性的產品與95無鉛汽油油價之間的關係，進而得到這兩者間具有相關性但不具有因果關係的結論。

Modern international crude oil prices often fluctuate due to different political and economic factors. Although fixed adjustment mechanism of crude oil prices is adopted in Taiwan thus the price fluctuation becomes relatively low, that still affects a variety of domestic industries, as well as transportation which is directly influenced by crude oil prices in a certain level. Therefore, time series analysis, correlation coefficient analysis and confidence intervals analysis would be applied so that the relationship among unleaded gasoline #95’s prices and cars, which are regarded as luxury goods and highly related to transportation, can be comprehended. The conclusion remarks can be made to indicate that the correlation but not causal relationship appears among oil prices and cars.