台中市幼兒補助對出生率的影響

Abstract

本研究探討台中市幼兒補助對出生率的影響，蒐集影響出生率的資料，藉由迴歸分析法導出此研究的結論，再根據實證結果對台中市政府提出有效的政策建言。從迴歸分析法得知，女性勞動參與率對粗出生率為負相關的顯著影響；結婚人口數對粗出生率為正相關顯著影響；幼兒補助對粗出生率為負相關但無顯著影響；虛擬變數龍年相較於其他年度粗出生率較高且為正相關的顯著影響。所以建議台中市政府可以考慮以上因素，多舉辦聯誼活動增加結婚人口數以提升粗出生率；藉由提高女性非勞動力人口來降低婦女勞動參與率以提升粗出生率，設想更完善的社會福利政策，才能真正有效提高粗出生率。

The purpose of this study is to investigate if the child allowance in Taichung city impact on the birth rate in Taichung city. In this paper, we used regression analysis to derive the conclusion from the date impacting on birth rate in Taichung city. Based on the evidence, we learned that the female labor force participation rate is negative and significant to the crude birth rate, the number of getting married is positive and significant to the crude birth rate, the child allowance is negative and insignificant to the crude birth rate, and the dummy variable which represents the year of the dragon is positive and significant to the crude birth rate. After comparing and analyzing the above, we propose the following which are the effective suggestions to Taichung government. First, the government can hold the more socializing activities to gain the number of getting married to improve the crude birth rate. Second, it can increase the female non-labor force population to reduce the female labor force participation rate to improve the crude birth rate. By the two suggestions, we hope that Taichung government can have a more perfect social welfare policy to really improve the crude birth rate.