荖濃溪流域崩塌潛勢分析

Abstract

崩塌潛勢模式對於防減災的應用非常重要，尤其在近年氣候變遷導致極端降雨事件升高的情況下，未來台灣崩塌災害的機率也會隨之提高。本研究以高屏溪上游的荖濃溪為研究區域，透過地理資訊系統進行崩塌因子的分析，包括高程、坡度、坡向、地質、距離河川、土地利用及累積雨量等七種因子，並且以不同的統計模式法分別建構崩塌潛勢評估模式，本研究將選定頻率比法與不安定指數法進行比較，透過與實際崩塌的情形比對確定哪一個模式較為準確。本研究結果可提供決策者了解哪些區域未來容易有崩塌災害產生，作為研擬防災對策的參考。

The landslide potential models which applied to prevent or reduce disasters are very important. Especially, under the situation of climate change, the frequency of extreme rainfalls increasing, and the disaster of landslide in Taiwan will also increase. The study area is Laonong River in the upstream of Kaoping River. The study use GIS as a tool to analyze the 7 landslide factors including elevation, slope, aspect, geology, distance to rivers, land use and rainfall accumulation. In addition, to find more accurate method, the study compare frequency ratio method and instability index method to actual landslide events. The result can help the user agencies/decision makers to know where tends to occur landslide disasters then the user can make references to prevent disasters.