老有所依？：台灣長照機構資源分配決定因素

Abstract

台灣正面臨著老年人口增加以及出生率下降的問題，人口老化廣泛影響著個人家庭與社會問題以及政治經濟問題，已經有越來越多國家開始重視人口結構老化的議題，並訂定相關法律，發展老年生活的規劃，目的是為了替老人營造一個更有保障的老年生活。在台灣為高齡化社會的情況之下，政府開始了有關老人照護方面的計劃，在民國97年正式實施了長期照顧十年計畫，並且在今年通過了長期照顧服務法，希望藉由此法規來整合各個照護體系的資源。由於長期照護機構所提供的床數是逐年增加的，本研究透過各縣市機構床數的分佈以及老年人口數，發現對於老人照護之需求較高的縣市並沒有提供相對多的資源，因此本文將探討哪些為資源分配的重要參考變數。 本文參考國內相關文獻資料整理出十個變數，並針對台灣各縣市在2008年至2014年之統計資料，透過敘述統計、相關係數及迴歸模型進行分析，了解各變數與長照資源間的關聯性。本研究分析初步結果顯示，醫院床數、65歲以上人口有偶比率、平均每人可得福利費是關聯性較高的變數，而扶老比、人口密度以及女性勞動參與率則是有顯著影響之變數。本研究期望能提供今年通過的長期照顧服務法，在未來能作為政策參考之依據，使政府在實施長照法之過程能有效改善資源分布不對稱的問題。

Taiwan is facing the severe challenge from aging population and low birth rate. The aging population is not only a family problem but also a social and economic problem. More and more nations have been addressing this demographic issue, and establishing the related law and developing the plan for citizen’s old-age life. In spite of different plans, the common aim is to ensure the good living for the elder. Taiwan’s government has also proposed a long-care plan in 2008, and has passed the Long-term Care Services Act in 2015, which attempts to integrate the various resources and promote the allocative efficiency. Due to the increase in demand, the total bed number provided by long-term care organization is increasing annually. This project plans to use county-level data across Taiwan to explore the determinants of long-term care service and which variables are more relevant. With a reference to the previous literature, we narrow down all related information to ten variables and focus our study period on the year of 2008 to 2014. Through the descriptive statistics, correlation and regression analysis, we analyze the effects of variables related with long-term care resource. Our empirical results show that the number of hospital beds, the ratio with a spouse for the 65 years of age and above, and average welfare expenditure that a citizen can share in the region, are most relevant. Local old age population dependency ratio, density of populations and female labor force participation rates also have significant impact on the total bed number provided by local long-term care organization. Our results can provide policy reference, especially for asymmetric problem while carrying out the Long-term Care Services Act.