股利殖利率是否會影響投資策略

Abstract

這些年來，股利殖利率一直影響著投資者的投資方向和投資績效，因此這次我們想通過探究股利殖利率與股票報酬率之間的關係來看看高股利殖利率的股票是否會對應有高的報酬率，也想探究股利殖利率是否可以成為投資者的選股標準。 我們從臺灣經濟新報 TEJ 中選出所有臺灣上市公司的殖利率，以上市公司的十年平均殖利率等方式來進行篩選，最後選出前50家，再從這50家中通過阿梅特.歐卡默斯(Ahmet Okumus)價值型集中投資法則進行篩選，最終篩選出了興富發、德律以及長虹這三家公司。 我們通過比較這三家公司的股利殖利率與其收盤價之間的關係後發現股價越高的時候，殖利率越低，反之亦然。因此，我們認爲想要使用殖利率作爲投資指標的投資者可以在殖利率較高的時候買進股票，并在殖利率下跌的時候賣出，但我們也發現高殖利率的股票不一定就會給投資人帶來高報酬率。那麼股利殖利率是否會真的影響到報酬率？ 為了解決上面的疑問，我們選出了十年平均殖利率前十大的公司，並計算出其年平均報酬率，再與大盤年平均報酬率比較。我們發現高殖利率的個股並不表示其持有高的報酬率，但是我們認為我們可以用殖利率作為短期投機標準，但不適合長期投資，畢竟股票的價值還會受到其他多種因素的影響，所以選股要考慮周全。

Over the years, dividend yield of a company already influence the investors in their investment decision-making. In this study, we will attempt to investigate and explain the relationship of dividend yield with rate of return and stock price. We take the 10-year dividend yield of all the Taiwan’s listed companies from Taiwan Economic Journal Database, and filter the data by choosing the 50 highest 10-year average dividend yield companies, then filter the data again by Ahmet Okumus’ Value Investing Law to get the companies which suitable for our study. We investigate the relationship between dividend yield and stock price of the filtered companies and find out that the higher the stock price, the lower the dividend yield. But, is it the company which has the highest dividend yield will provide the highest rate of return to investors? In order to solve the problem mentioned above, we choose the 10 companies which have highest 10-year average dividend yield and calculate the 10-year average rate of return of each company to compare with the 10-year average rate of return of the Weighted Price Index of the Taiwan Stock Exchange. The results showed that investors can use the dividend yield of the company as an indicator for short-term investment rather than long-term investment. Due to the stock's value can be affected by many factors, we advised that investors should be consider other aspects when selecting a stock for investment.