台日韓新球崛起

Abstract

中文摘要

本篇報告意旨在台灣、日本、新加坡及韓國中挑出分別在股市、匯市和債市中表現最佳的國家做為投資人2019年最適投資標的。在本篇報告的一開始，首先會個別介紹各個國家的人口、GDP及CPI的狀況，讓投資人對各國家的市場有初步的認識。 其次將個別探討各國近一年的股市、匯市以及債市，去檢視這些國家在中美貿易戰、美元升值、油價波動等市場不穩定因素下，所產生的變化及因應，接著透過近年來的數據去估算投資標的在股匯債市的預期報酬，並以PMI指數、經常帳佔GDP比重跟外匯存底來輔助分析。 最後再預期風險方面是以流動性風險、價格風險、利率風險及政治風險這四種風險來分析，得出本組的投組建議，為股市應投資於新加坡，匯市是台灣以及債市是韓國，做為投資人在投資的方向依據。

Abstract The purpose of our report is identify the best countries to invest in 2019 among Taiwan, Japan, Singapore and Korea respectively stock market, exchange market and bond market. In the first part of the essay, we introduce the population, GDP and CPI of the four countries in order to make investors become more familiar with them. Secondly, to understand how the price respond to the international affairs such as U.S.-China trade war, oil price fluctuation and U.S. strong dollars we analysis the historical data and the trend charts of four countries in these three markets. After that, we estimate the expected return of the countries in three markets with the historical data, PMI index, current account balance and foreign reserve. As for the risk assessment, we evaluate the risk of liquidity, price, interest rate and political condition to make our final investing advice for 2019. In conclusion, the best investing country for stock market is Singapore, for exchange market is Taiwan and for bond market is Korea.