私校營運保障險設計與定價之研究

Abstract

中文摘要 近年來，在少子化、市場化、自由化、國際化的衝擊下，台灣高等教育面臨到前所未有的困境，甚至有學校出現經營困難的情形。然而學校在積極擴大招生及提升辦學績效的同時，必定需要足夠的資金，透過公開資訊統計發現私立大學學費占學校經費來源比重高達60%，可知學費對私校的經營是一項至關重要的因素，而學費源自於學生，如今台灣的大學要有穩定的生源並不是件容易的事。因此本研究針對私立大學，結合系上所學，設計一款私校營運保障險。

本研究透過逢甲大學註冊課務組提供之102至106學年度每學期註冊及退學人數名單，並用最大概似估計法預測其退學率，根據不同學校、不同專業、不同學費，以壽險的定價假設計算出其保費及準備金，同時根據教育部大專校院校務資訊公開網所提供之101至105學年度全國各校在學及退學人數推估出全國私校不分系的費率表，並進行退學率分析、敏感度測試及可行性分析。

根據英國泰晤士高等教育報導，美國伊利諾伊大學香檳分校支付42萬美元的保險費，以對沖學生人數可能快速下降導致的學費收入損失，印證了我們的觀點，因此大力推廣此險對保險公司、投保學校及學校教職員和學生都是意義匪淺的，希望在未來此商品能切實可行的出現在保險市場上。

Abstract Under the impact of declining sub-replacement fertility rate, marketization, liberalization, and internationalization in recent years, Taiwan's higher education has faced unprecedented difficulties, and even have experienced operational difficulties. While actively expanding enrollments and improving teaching performance, schools must have sufficient funds. Through public information statistics, it is found that private university tuition accounts for up to 60% of school funding sources. Tuition are vital to the operation of private schools, and are derived from students. It is not easy for universities to maintain stable students. Therefore, this study designed a school business life insurance for private universities. This study uses a list of the number of registrations and dropouts for each semester during 2013-2017 provided by Feng-Chia University Registration and Curriculum Section, and predicts the dropout rate by using maximum likelihood estimation. According to different departments, different majors and different tuition fees, the premiums and reserves are calculated based on the life insurance pricing assumptions. At the same time, according to the number of students and students who have dropped out of school during 2012-2016 provided by College Information Open Data website, the premium of each private schools in Taiwan is estimated, and carry out dropout rate analysis, sensitivity test and feasibility analysis. According to Times Higher Education Report, the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign paid $420,000 to offset the loss of tuition fees caused by the rapid decline in the number of students. This confirms our view and therefore promotes this product to insurance companies, schools, the school faculty, and students are very meaningful, and hope that this product will appear in the market in the future.