英國與歐盟分手, 值得嗎? : 國貿擂台

Abstract

中文摘要 起初英國想要加入歐盟前身歐洲共同體(European Community, EC)，是因為重視歐陸的經濟市場。但因為他們認為歐盟的法令太多且繁複，所以未使用歐元且沒有加入申根公約。英國加入歐盟之後也導致澳大利亞將貿易重心轉移至距離較近的亞太地區。 英國為何想要脫離歐盟?原本英國就無法全面接受歐盟的所有規定，英國加入的目的是透過歐盟追求自身經濟利益，而非為了歐盟的政治整合。壓垮駱駝的最後一根稻草是債務危機和歐盟移民政策，當文化差異被認為無法改變時，英國人望築起一道城牆來保護傳統和秩序。 2016年6月英國舉行脫離歐盟的公投，投票結果為「脫離歐盟」。但須根據「里斯本條約」第50條啟動脫歐程序，始能順利脫歐，目前看來不論是歐盟成員或英國都對草案內容有許多的意見。 經研究分析預測，最接近英國的國家，如愛爾蘭、比利時和荷蘭，以及德國和法國等貿易量較大的國家，將受到英國脫歐的最大經濟影響。其中與北愛爾蘭的邊界是英國退歐影響最大的地區，因為其跨境貿易量很大，交通基礎設施卻相對不足，如國際機場、港口等。英國在部分國家的產業鏈中佔有舉足輕重的腳色，例如荷蘭，一些城市依靠英國出口和貿易，如天然氣和白銀鏈。如果英國脫歐，荷蘭將可能面臨垮台。 所以經濟學家們大致認為，英國脫歐將會生成許多成本。限制歐洲大陸和歐洲最大的金融中心之間的資本自由流動，不僅會對倫敦的金融機構產生影響，更會對融資產生影響進而影響整個歐洲。 因此，我們將對於此議題深入了解、分析以及數據的佐證後，來探討英國與歐盟分手是否值得。

Abstract At first, the reason why the United Kingdom wanted to join the European Union, which then was called the European Community (EC), was because the UK valued the economic market in Europe. However, later they felt that the EU's laws are too numerous and complicated, which causing them not to use the euro and them be absent at the Schengen Convention. After the UK joined the EU, it also led Australia to shift its trade focus to the Asia Pacific region, which is closer to Australia. Why does UK want to leave the EU? Originally, the United Kingdom could not fully accept all the regulations of the EU. The purpose of Britain's joining the EU is to pursue its own economic interests through the EU, not for the political integration of the EU. The last deciding factor for UK to decide to leave the EU was the debt crisis and the EU immigration policy. When cultural differences were considered untolerable and inevitable, the British hoped to build a wall against EU to protect its own traditions and orders. In June 2016, the United Kingdom held a referendum to leave the European Union, and the result of the vote was "leaving the EU." However, it is necessary to start the Brexit process, which is the abbreviation for “Britain Exit”, in accordance with Article 50 of the "Lisbon Treaty" and just then UK will be able to successfully leave the EU. At present, it seems that both EU members and the United Kingdom have many different opinions and debates on the contents of the draft. According to researches and analysis, countries closest to the UK, such as Ireland, Belgium and the Netherlands, as well as countries with large trade volumes such as Germany and France, will be most affected by the Brexit economic impact. The border with Northern Ireland is the region most affected by Brexit, because of its large cross-border trade volume and relatively inadequate transportation infrastructure, such as international airports and ports. The UK has a pivotal role in the industrial chain of some countries, such as the Netherlands, where some cities rely on UK exports and trade, such as natural gas and silver chains. If the UK leaves the European Union, the Netherlands will be most likely to face a downfall in its economy. Because of these reasons, economists generally believe that Brexit will generate many costs. Restricting the free flow of capital between the European continent and Europe's largest financial center will not only affect London's financial institutions, but also affect Europe’s finance and also Europe as a whole. Therefore, we will discuss whether the breakup between the UK and the EU is worthwhile after deep understanding and analysis. We will also provide the data needed to support the discussion of this issue.