緊迫叮人：登革熱疫情之探討

Abstract

中文摘要 登革熱是大家耳熟能詳的傳染病，從小時候就不時能夠在課本看見它，但在生活中我們對此並沒有太大的防範意識。近年來，我們居住的城市-台中，爆發出多起登革熱的確診病例，因此引發我們對這個主題的動機，想透過統計分析方法來研究哪些因素會造成登革熱疫情加重。 我們使用R軟體作為工具，以回歸分析來探討聖嬰年與非聖嬰年的月均溫與該月登革熱病例數的關係; 以獨立樣本t檢定探討降雨量與登革病例數的關係;先以t檢定探討是否南亞的人數逐年增加，再以迴歸分析探討東南亞旅遊人數與登革熱病例數的關係 我們用簡單線性迴歸來分析台北、新北及桃園三個地區在聖嬰年與反聖嬰年的比較，我們發現在北部地區的反聖嬰年月均溫與登革熱病例數相較而言是比較有關係的。以獨立樣本t檢定探討降雨量與登革病例數結果，發現相關性不高，我們猜測平均雨量與病例數之間可能有延遲因素，因此出現誤差。最後我們探討出東南亞旅遊人數與登革熱病例數是有關係的，隨東南亞旅遊人數增加，病例數也呈現成長。

Abstract Dengue fever is an infectious disease that everyone is familiar with. From time to time, I can see it in textbooks, but in life we don't have much awareness. In recent years, many of the confirmed cases of dengue fever have occurred in the city where we live, Taichung. This has triggered our motivation for this topic. We want to use statistical analysis methods to study which factors will cause the dengue fever to worsen. We use R software as a tool to analyze the relationship between the monthly mean temperature of the holy and non-Holy infant years and the number of dengue cases in the month by regression analysis; to investigate the relationship between rainfall and the number of dengue cases by independent sample t test; Use t to check whether the number of people in South Asia is increasing year by year, and then use regression analysis to explore the relationship between the number of tourists in Southeast Asia and the number of cases of dengue fever. We used simple linear regression to analyze the comparison between the three years of Taipei, New Taipei and Taoyuan in the Year of the Infant and the Year of Anti-Sacred Infant. We found that the average monthly temperature of anti-Holy infants in the northern region was compared with the number of dengue cases. related. The results of rainfall and dengue cases were investigated by independent sample t. It was found that the correlation was not high. We suspected that there might be a delay between the average rainfall and the number of cases, so there was an error. Finally, we explored that the number of tourists in Southeast Asia is related to the number of dengue cases. As the number of tourists in Southeast Asia increases, the number of cases also grows.