站在投資人觀點分析造紙業：以正隆、永豐餘為例

Abstract

摘要 紙，是我們日常生活中所最常接觸的必需品，不管是上課所用的講義、隨身攜帶的衛生紙，或是吃飯的紙餐盒容器，紙造用品皆與我們的生活息息相關，在不知不覺之中，紙類對我們來說，已經是不可或缺的存在，而造紙產業雖然屬歸傳統產業，但其與社會文化建設和國家經濟發展密切相關。因此，造紙產業景氣的興衰，常也是用來判斷經濟興衰的領先指標之一。

此報告我們將市場上較大的兩家紙公司，正隆以及永豐餘來做比較，希望透過財務報表的分析可以更加了解造紙產業近年來的經營績效和營運狀況，我們將用五大比率分析(財務結構分析、償債能力分析、經營能力分析、獲利能力分析、現金流量分析)來比較，本報告將時間範圍涵蓋在近五年從2015至2019，同時也會和產業的平均值做對比，以了解兩家公司在此行業的營運狀況，最後再藉由我們上課所學做出綜合性的分析及結論。

經過分析結果而論，我們可以得知永豐餘在結構穩定度方面較佳。而正隆在短期償債能力、獲利能力以及股東報酬方面較佳。 因此我們會建議若是屬於追求高報酬的積極型投資人，可以選擇正隆。 而風險承受度較低的保守型投資人，則建議可以選擇永豐餘。

Abstract Paper is the most common necessity in our daily life. Whether it is the handout, the tissue or even the paper lunch box container for meals. Paper supplies are closely related to our lives. Unconsciously, paper is already an indispensable existence for us. Although the paper industry is a traditional property, it goes hand in hand with economic development and social with cultural construction. Therefore, the rise and fall of the paper industry has always been a leading indicator of the economic prosperity.

In this report, we compare the two largest paper companies in the market, Zheng Long and Yuen Feng Yu. We hope that through the analysis of financial statements, we can understand better about the operating performance and operating conditions of the paper industry in recent years. We use five ratios to analyze which are financial structure analysis, solvency analysis, operating capability analysis, profitability analysis and cash flow analysis. This report covers the time from 2015 to 2019, we also compare with the industry average to understand the operating conditions of the two companies in this industry. Finally, we make comprehensive analysis and conclusion.

After analyzing, we can know that Yuen Feng Yu is better in terms of structural stability. Zheng Long is better in short-term solvency, profitability and shareholder compensation. Therefore, we suggest that if you are an active investor who pursues high returns, you can choose Zheng Long. For those conservative investors with low risk tolerance, Yuen Feng Yu would be a better choice.