財務比率與企業危機關聯性之探討：以華映為例

Abstract

本研究採個案分析的方式，以2019年下市的華映做為財務危機公司之分析個案。驗證先前財務危機預警模型之文獻所使用的財務指標在個案公司華映上是否良好運作，並以電子產業為母體，將上述財務指標做為自變數，建立財務危機預警模型。第一階段本研究以個案分析，得知經文獻探討選出十項財務危機預警指標，在個案華映上皆具有預警能力，並根據指標在時間及顯著方面的特性可以分為長期預警指標以及短期預警指標。 第二階段本研究以迴歸模型驗證所篩選出之財務指標是否能組成有效的財務危機預警模型，經過一系列檢定及試誤後，所得到的模型中具有兩年以上顯著性的財務指標僅有負債比率、淨現金流量/負債總額以及淨營運資金/資產總額三項指標，而本研究對台灣電子業所建立之預警模型在財務危機發生前第三年至第一年的整體預測率分別為81.8%、90.9%及93.9%，由整體預測率可以得知隨著時間越接近財務危機發生年度，整體預測正確比率亦正向提高。

This study took Chunghwa Picture Tubes (CPT), which was delisted in 2019 as a case study of financial distress companies. Attempted to verify if the financial indexes used by previous financial failure the prediction model worked under CPT’s circumstances. For this purpose expect case study, we also build a financial distress prediction model, which took those selected indexes as an independent variable, and the whole Taiwanese electronics industry as a population. In the first stage (case analysis), our study had found that all the indexes we selected through literature discussion have early warning capabilities in the cases, and according to the characteristic of indicators in time and significance, these indexes can be dividing into long-term early warning indicators and short-term early warning indicators. During the second stage, we aimed to examine whether the indexes we selected were capable of building an effective financial distress prediction model. After conducting various statistical hypothesis and trial-and-error, there are only the Debt-to-Equity ratio, Cash Flow/Total Liabilities and Working Capital/Total Assets had significantly more than two years in our model. the early warning model for the Taiwanese electronics industry from our study has an eighty-one percent、ninety percent and ninety-three percent accuracy during the last three years before financial distress occurred. According to the overall accuracy of our early warning model, we realized that with the approaches to financial failure, the accuracy of the model is also increasing.