台灣肉類消費的漸進式需求結構轉變模型

Abstract

本研究目的為建立一個漸進式轉變AIDS需求模型來探討台灣對肉類消費結構轉變型態。資料使用1962-2000年的肉類（包括漁產品、豬肉、雞肉、牛肉及其他肉類等五大類）消費年資料。結果顯示結構轉變發在1973-1983年，相較於歷年資料發現此期間漁產品、豬肉和雞肉的消費比例皆有巨幅的改變。在需求彈性估計方面，顯示結構變動後的豬肉、牛肉、與雞肉的支出彈性變得較不具彈性，而漁產品則是由必需品轉變為奢侈品。此外，豬肉與雞肉的交叉價格彈性發現，兩者由互補品轉變為替代品。

This paper establishes a gradual switching Almost Ideal Demand System to identify the changing patterns of meat consumption in Taiwan. The model is applied to annual data from 1962 to 2000. Meats are categorized into five groups, including fishery products, pork, beef, chicken, and other meats. The empirical results show that the transition path for meat consumption began in 1973 and ended in 1983. Comparing with the real data, we find that the meat consumption ratios of fishery products, pork, and chicken have large differences. After the structural change, the expenditure elasticities for pork, beef, and chicken are less responsive to expenditure changes, and fishery products have changed from necessities to luxury goods. The cross-price elasticities indicate that the relationships between pork and chicken changes from complements to substitution.