區間測試法探討總體經濟與出國旅遊之影響關係

Abstract

本文旨在探討旅遊模型中，工業生產指數、物價指數及匯率對於出國旅遊人次之長、短期影響。由Johansen共整法及ARDL區間測試法，分別得到各變數間之長期均衡，存在及不存在之相反結果。由於各項單根測試發現各變數之整合齊次不盡相同，因此ARDL法所得變數間不存有長期共移的結果較具說服力，此說明了出國旅遊人次之增減並無法由總體經濟相關變數來判定，亦可能由個人財富及旅遊偏好等其他因素所左右。ARDL法之短期分析，發現於一段固定期間內之出國旅遊總人次應是某個固定數值，若於前些月份之出國旅遊人次過高，則會衝擊當月之出國旅遊意願，使出國旅遊人次降低。本研究另以一般化衝擊反應函數進行變數間之動態跨期衝擊影響分析，發現對出國旅遊人次之影響，除了出國旅遊人次之自身短期顯著影響之短暫性衝擊外，工業生產指數於短期間對出國旅遊人次亦有負向之短暫性衝擊。

This articles aims to discuss the long-term and short-term influence on the number of outbound visitors by industrial production index, price index and exchange rate. Using Johansen Cointegration Method and ARDL Bounds testing, the long-term balance of different variants and the opposite results of existing and non-existing are reached. The test of each unit root finds that the integration homogeneity of each variant is different, therefore, the result reached by ARDL that there is no long-term cointegration (共移) seems to be more persuasive. It indicates that the change of outbound visitors cannot only be determined by macroeconomic related variants, but also by other factors such as personal wealth and traveling preference, etc. The short-term analysis by ARDL finds that the number of outbound visitors during a certain period should be fixed. If the number is excessively high in previous months, the intention of outbound tourism in that month will be affected, and consequently, the number of outbound visitors will be reduced. This study also uses generalized-impulse response function to analyze the dynamic impact in different phases among variants. It finds that industrial production index also has a tentative negative impact on the number of outbound visitors in short term except the brief impact on outbound visitors' personal short term significant influence.