影響臺灣二氧化碳排放因素之研究(1981-1999)

Abstract

為考量能源使用與生產活動的關聯性，並充分掌握初級能源與最終能源需求之間的能量轉換關係，本研究運用「以名目產值為基底之最終能源密集度」指標、產業關聯表、及國內生產毛額之最終需要資料，利用Betts(1989)所提出的完整拆解矩陣式因素分解法，從能源轉換技術、產業能源使用、產業中間投入之關聯、直到最終需要層面的拉力，解析臺灣各產業部門初級能源需求及其相對經濟貢獻之關係。然後，再配合能源碳密集度係數的應用，以對我國CO2排放的變動進行全面性的探討。故此一分析模式可將家計與政府部門的最終商品消費，以及投資、海關輸出入等最終需要資料與初級能源需求的關係加以串連，較一般傳統文獻著重的終端需求面分析更具整體能源政策、以及溫室氣體減量之意涵，將更有助於政府相關單位研擬更全面性的能源節約政策方向，以及溫室氣體減量責任的歸屬。此乃本研究的創新。

To take into account the association between energy use and production activity, as well as have a good grasp of the transformation between primary energy and final demand, this study unites the exact decompostion method proposed by Betts (1989), applies input-output table, and GDP's final demand to analyze the relationship of primary energy and its relative economic contribution made by each industry sector from the perspectives of energy transformation, energy use, and derived deamdn by final demand. Then, the carbon intensity coefficients are employed to investigate the dynamics of CO2 emission in Taiwan. It is known from the analysis model that final commodity consumption by the household and government sectors can be associated with the relationship of final demand and primary energy, which is seen in investment and importing. It implies that the overall energy policy and greenhouse gas reduction is more concerned with in this paper than in traditional literature, which is usually focused on end-use. Further, policy recommendations are also presented in the final section of this paper.