垃圾去哪兒？

Abstract

臺灣地狹人稠，寸土寸金，再不想辦法降低垃圾量的話，臺灣可能沒辦法負荷人民製造垃圾的速度，垃圾來的太快，該如何降低垃圾量並有效地資源回收，是刻不容緩的議題。內文將討論臺灣處理垃圾的概況，以及預測未來垃圾總產生量的走勢，告訴人類做好資源回收的急迫性。

資料來自行政院環保署中華民國統計資訊網之總體統計資料庫，選取全國垃圾月總產生量(公噸)的資料進行分析與預測，資料區間為2000年7月至2016年1月，共187個觀測值，並保留最後12筆做樣本外預測，預測方法使用ARIMA介入分析。討論過程使用SAS、MINITAB、R軟體、MS EXCEL、MS WORD等軟體進行分析。

資料顯示，春節與雨季很有可能造成垃圾量的波動，一月的平均垃圾量最高，推測是因為春節約在一、二月之交，提前打掃的關係，所以一月極多、二月極少，且大掃除會淘汰大型家具，添購新家具。雨季的垃圾量也很多，每逢大雨過後，臺灣街道遍佈雨衣與雨傘，我們可能不珍惜雨衣，因為輕便雨衣方便又便宜，破了、髒了就丟，無形之中製造許多垃圾，建議購買材質好、不易破損的雨衣，家具亦然，購買耐看耐用的家具，而非美麗一時，汰換率高的家具。

Taiwan is lack of storage for a lot of garbage. How to reduce the amounts of junk and do recycling practicably is an imperative issue. In this paper, we will discuss the overview, and forecast that the amounts of garbage in the near future. The data that we discussed is from the Statistical Databank of Environmental Protection Administration, Executive Yuan in Taiwan. The time interval of the dataset is from July 2000 to 2016 January. There are 187 observations, and we reserve the last 12 observations for forecast purpose, and the statistical method for forecasting is ARIMA interrupted analysis. SAS, minitab, R, MS Excel, etc are used for analysis.. The data revealed that rain season and the Chinese New Year's Day may affect the fluctuation of junk. The maximum peak is in January, we guess that before the Chinese New Year coming, people sweep the house, and abandon many furniture. During the raining season coming, people may buy lightweight raincoats. If they are casually blown away or damaged, we might buy a new one. Because we do not treasure the things, we produce much junk. Finally, we suggest that buy a durable goods if you can.