臺灣鐵路局行車事故與事件風險分析

Abstract

鐵路系統是一個封閉的系統，再加上延誤無法預期，一旦列車發生誤點，可能會對其他列車造成影響或是在系統上形成擴散或連鎖的後果。延誤主要分為：場站的延誤、車輛本身產生的延誤、路線營運造成的延誤及其他的延誤，任何一種延誤都會產生大小不一的結果，即使是很小的延誤也會影發連鎖效應導致後方列車延誤或無法行駛，因此延誤的複雜性相當的高，也很難預測。故本研究將臺灣鐵路管理局行車保安委員會提供民國103年至民國106年(共2258件)，相關行車事故列車延誤資料，進而分析探討鐵路行車事故的影響程度以及事故機率，並加以編碼重新修正定義並繪製出整體(運務處、工務處、機務處、電務處)5x5風險矩陣，及行車事故事件風險分類比較、不出力與待料議題分析以供台鐵參考。

The railway system is a closed system, and the delay is unpredictable. Once the train is delayed, it may affect other trains or have a proliferation or chain effect on the system. Delays are mainly divided into: delays in the station, delays cause by itself, delays caused by the operation of the route and other delays. Any of them will result in different extent, even small delays will cause the next train is delay or unable to departure, so the complexity of the delay is quite high and difficult to predict. Therefore, this study will provide the Taiwan Railway Administration Traffic Safety Committee from 2014 to 2017(2258 piece of data), the relevant train accident delay data, and then analyze the impact of railway traffic accidents and the probability of accidents, and code to re-code the definition and product a 5x5 risk matrix for the whole(Transport Office, Works Department Locomotive Department, and Electricity Service Department), and compare the risk classification of traffic accident events, and analyze the unreported and pending issues for reference by the Taiwan Railway Administration.